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In recent months the farming community in the country has voiced their concern on pressing issues that bother them. Agitations have turned violent and long marches by the community have once again brought the farmers’ woes to centre stage.
A non violent Bharatiya Kisan Union rally began on Sept. 25 from Haridwar, 200 kilometres north of Delhi and was to end on Oct. 2 at New Delhi. Farmers were stopped at the outskirts of the capital and water cannons were used.
In a state where farming is an important occupation, farmers are anguished with the state government for the crashing prices of crops despite the launch of Bhavantar Bhugtan Scheme last year.
As Madhya Pradesh goes to vote on November 28, the sentiment of the farmer could very well decide who rules the state.
Politics in MP has been largely dominated by the BJP, this election could be its acid test. This election could decide which way the wind blows in 2019. Indian farmers who voted overwhelmingly for Modi in 2014 could look the other way next May.
At the state level. the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government faces ire from the farmers for the agrarian distress they face.
Notably pressures on farmer income have led to agrarian riots in recent years.
Analysts admit that discontent could impact poorer districts where BJP has less support. A combination of farmer protests, SC/ST tensions, and general anti-incumbency sentiment offers hope to the grand old party. This even though the Congress faces factionalism within.
The Shivraj regime until recently had formed a pro-rural image through assured MSP-based procurement of wheat, and investments in irrigation, electricity, road and mandi infrastructure.
It took the death of six farmers in police firing in Madhya Pradesh that brought back the spotlight on issues the farmer community faces.
What started off as protests in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, gradually spread to Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. Add to this the problem of suicides by the Anndaata, that continues unabated.
Agriculture workers make up about half of India’s 1.3 billion people. For them a vote for the present regime has come at the cost of a surge in diesel prices by 26 percent. Hence tilling fields, harvesting and transporting crops has become expensive for 263 million farmers using diesel tractors.
To add fuel to fire, prices of key fertilizers like potash and phosphate have jumped 17 percent in a year.
A union official speaking to Reuters reveals there is need to prop up commodity prices and keep a lid on farmers’ costs, which accounts for nearly 16 percent of India’s $2.6 trillion economy.
India’s production of pulses surged to 24.51 million tonnes annually, up from 23.13 million tonnes in the previous 12 months.
This even though imports of pulses have fallen to 1.2 million tonnes in the financial year to March 2019, lowest since 2000/01.
While India has surpassed Brazil as the top sugar producer, rising output has driven down local sugar prices by 15 percent and left mills nursing losses.
A rough estimate suggests of 1.2 billion people living in India, 90 million families — or 54.6 percent is engaged in agriculture.
The farmer now faces a two headed demon revolving around economy and politics.
With record high fuel prices and surging costs of fertilisers, things could get worse experts tell media outlets.
In the last MP elections in 2013 BJP secured 45% of all votes—the highest in the state for nearly 30 years—and 72% of seats in the state. BJP’s vote share was 9 percentage points higher than Congress’s (36%).
Pic courtesy : India Today
Another win in MP would cement BJP’s status as the dominant party in the Hindi belt. For Shivraj Singh Chouhan it would be a step closer to a national role. A win in MP would mean BJP counters claims of farmer distress and Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes (SCs/STs) turning against the government.
Congress for now has governments in four states and Union Territories — Punjab, Karnataka, Pondicherry and Mizoram. A win in MP would elevate Congress’ stature from a spent force to a party in reckoning.
In 2014, the BJP won 26 out of the 29 parliamentary seats in the state. Congress had won three.
These assembly elections are being seen as the ‘semi-final’ bout ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. BJP fights against an anti-incumbency tide in three states.
Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana will all be heading for assembly polls in November-December. Counting for all five states will happen on December 11.
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